Wednesday, October 10, 2012

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

ANALYSIS

FREE PREDICTIONS 15.12.2013




Aris - Olympiacos (AH Aris +2) @ 1,84 Bet Victor
Aris - Olympiakos : Aris +2 
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/greece/super-league-2013-2014/aris-olympiakos-piraeus-IiaqJ5Rh/#ah;2

Aris is one of Olympiakos team.Last years , Olympiakos help Aris by sending players on loan so to  help Aris,stay in League .
This year ,Aris is doing very bad and he is in 17th place out of 18 teams . He has nice roster and i can't understand why he is in that position.
Maybe ,Olympiakos give something to Aris so to help him ,maybe not .
But with clearly agonistic facts , Aris can hit Olympiakos too.I saw last matches of Olympiakos and they didn't play that well. At 3-0 against Ergotelis is magical score , because Ergotelis lost many chances to score , even at 1-0 . In that match , Ergotelis  had 14 shots !
At match against Asteras , Olympiakos wanted referree's help so to gain the 3-points , because he scored with penalty kick at 83' . 
Even in match against Anderlecht , Olympiakos didn't play well .
Aris can even take 1X but i ll go with high stakes and 2 for Aris .
Moreover Aris never losses at Kleanthis Vikelidis(Aris's stadium) from Olympiakos with 2 goals or more last ten years ! Last defeat for Aris with 2 or more on season 14.12.2013http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/greece/super-league/aris-olympiakos-piraeus/IiaqJ5Rh/
GL in your picks !!!

Glyfada - Fokikos @ 2,35 bwin

Glyfada - Fokikos : Fokikos (2,35)
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/greece/football-league-group-1-2013-2014/glyfada-fokikos-fc-hAH2dsfG/

Clearly wrong odds from bookmaker here . Fokikos's win should have around 1,70 , not 2,35 , so it is must bet .
Glyfada is in a very bad situation . Due to economic problems ,team left all foreign players : Songo , Portilla , Pinqon , Mondeste , Araaos and the greek player Kaminiotis . Questionable because of injuries are : Natsouras and Tsingas .
Fokikos is a good team , very strong at home with 5-1-0 but not good on away matches with 0-1-4 .
Although , here we have an intresting fact , that Glyfada will not have supportes on stadium , so Fokikos can make his first away win .
GL in your picks !!!

Genoa - Atalanta X @ 3,25 Betway
New deal under Gasperini boosted genoa atthe 8th place: Genoa have anyway IMO limited resources good for midtable but they haven't particular strenght, excepted for some players able to make difference.
Genoa will miss 3 regulars in back (Manfredini, Portanova, and Vrsaljko), missed MF Kucka (probable out till the end of the season), all that will mean change of modul for 3-5-2.
 
Perin; Antonini, Gamberini, Marchese; Sampirisi, Biondini, Matuzalem, Bertolacci, Antonelli; CalaiĆ², Gilardino.
 
Atalanta are not inferior than the past season, when they recovered deduction points and they climbed so fast the table, but they lost confidence with away games where they recorded very poor 1-0-7, losing last 4 away matches in a row (3 of them by 1 differential goal and in 3 of them they suffered 1 redcarded).
Missed DEF Raimondi and Yepes, MF Bellini, Bonaventura and Cazzola; FW Livaja.
 
Consigli; Scaloni, Canini, Lucchini, Brivio; Brienza, Cigarini, Carmona, Kone; Moralez, Denis.
 
Despite Atalanta reached just 1 point in away they stand in safe place yet and I guess they will start to increase their table considering their general good condition.

Paganese - Catanzaro 2 @ 2,50 bet365

Paganese (2-1-11; 9:23) are the bottom team of Group B: they reached 7 points on 14 matches played, coming from 1 point in the last 5 played.
Home record is so poor (1-0-6; 5:11) where they have been able the other inadeguate team of Barletta.
 
Catanzaro (6-7-1; 17:9) climbed the table playing very tight matches: they have built all their points counting over iron defense (the best in the Group).
They are sitting currently at the 3rd place.
 
Waiting for inferior championship leagues reform (no relegation) many teams watched for their financial state and they have built teams without necessary strenght to fight against many teams of 1st Division.
The only problem for Catanzaro will be to build the game and find the net facing host team that will think only to destroy.

Vitesse - Breda (AH Vitesse -2) @ 2,28 Pinnacle

Vitesse on fire, they have amazing run, they won last 5 league matches and in 4 of last 5 games they scored at least 3 goals. Also they demolished Psv with 2-6 at away , it was amazing victoy. They are good at home and they have no injury players.

On the other hand, Breda are playing very bad at away, look at last 4 away matches :

Utrecht 4-2 Breda
Waalwijk 3-0 Breda
Twente 5-2 Breda
Ajax 4-0 Breda

They will be without Poepen (att 13/5 topscorer) , Verbeek (att 14/4 second topscorer) Joey SUk (mf 11/1).

Last season Vitesse won both games with 3-0.

I expect same scenario here , 3-0, 4-0, 4-1 are my scores.


Olhanense - Benfica (AH Benfica -1,75) @ 1,96 188bet

Despite not being placed last in the table I rate Olhanense as being the worst team in this League. They came after two consecutive defeats at home and in the last match against Rio Ave they have made two shots in the entire match one of them at goal. They have a total of 74 shots since the beginning of the league and the second worse them in this stat (Arouca) have made 108! The attack is toothless, the midfield terribly misses the injured Rui Duarte (team best player) and the defence is slow aggravated by the fact that it misses the two available LB (injured Jander and suspended Seric). The change of coaches has done them no good as with Paulo Alves they are playing even worse than with Abel Xavier. To make things worse they keep playing their home games in the neutral Algarve stadium which will obviously have much more supporters from Benfica. Home advantage is completely gone.
Benfica has been very irregular this season. The injury of Salvio and the lack of a good physical condition of Cardozo are doing a great damage and the team is not able to show the electric football we were used to see under the direction of Jorge Jesus. They are coming from a poor home draw against bottom placed Arouca and they desperately need a good result here to raise moral. They performed very well midweek with PSG where they show some of the quality’s they had in previous seasons: high pressure, aggressiveness in the midfield where Serbians Matic and Fejsa completely controlled the situation and a deep play through the flanks with several crosses into the box. Salvio and Cardozo are still injured as well as Siqueira. Mid Enzo Perez is suspended.
Without Enzo Perez I expect Jesus to field Rodrigo upfront who will Lima in the offensive 4-2-4 that Benfica played in the last seasons which should be too much for a clueless Olhanense. This is a very ambitious handicap but after seeing Olhanense play several times I just don’t see how they will avoid a huge defeat in this game.
Probable line-ups:
Olhanense:  Belec – Luis Filipe, Diakithe, Koldrup, Mladen – Celestino, Pele, Regula – Bigazzi, Dionisi, Balogun.
Benfica:  Artur – Maxi, Luisao, Garay, Silvio – Matic, Fejsa – Markovic, Lima, Rodrigo, Gaitan

Atletico Madrid - Valencia (AH Atletico -1,25) @ 1,92 Pinnacle

Atletico is in one of those moments where everything works perfectly no matter what they do. This past week, coach Simeone used a mixed squad to face both Sant Andreu for the cup and Porto for CL and the results were really positive showing that this is a really structured team where everyone fits in without losing competitiveness.  In the past few weeks Atletico suffered several problems such as injuries, suspensions and a high density of games and they manage to succeed in overcoming all of these situations coming out even stronger. They will have a non-important cup match midweek so they can fully concentrate on beating Valencia to stay in the top of the League table and maintaining their spotless home record: 7-0-0 / 27:4
DM Mario is the only injured player (long term) so Simeone will be able to field his favourite line-up with a lot of players being back in contention after missing the last two games:
Courtouis – Juanfran, Godin, Miranda, Filipe – Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Arda – Diego Costa, Villa
Valencia is immersed in a deep crisis at all levels. The sale of the club is being negotiated by the board, coach Djukic is making strange decisions which led him to be highly criticized by the press/fans and there are several players completely out of form (Mathieu, Banega, Postiga, Pabon). On paper Valencia had two easy games this past week in order to regain morale and player motivation by rotating the squad. The results couldn’t have been more disastrous: 0:0 against Nastic (who is in the same division and has a much worse home record  than Sant Andreu who was beaten 4:0 by Atletico) and a disappointing 1:1 home draw against Kuban for EL. More important than the results was the poor performances and the lack of motivation all the players showed. For a team aspiring to reach a place in the table that gives access to next year’s  CL their away record is quite poor: 2-1-4 / 7:13 with two lucky wins in Granada and Getafe and 3 terrible performances in Espanyol, Betis and Villarreal. Having to face Atletico and Real before the Christmas break it’s not the best calendar fixtures Valencia would have wished for at this moment. The constant change of players and the unsuccessful effort in finding a stable starting XI from Djukic makes difficult to accurately predict Valencia’s line-up but it should look something like this:
Alves – Barragan (Pereira), Ruiz, Mathieu, Guardado – Oriol, Parejo – Feghouli, Canales, Bernat – Jonas
Another interesting stat is that out of the 11 home games Atletico played in all competitions they managed to beat this handicap in 8 of them. There is a huge gap in quality, form, morale, competitiveness and killer instinct between these two and anything but a clear victory from the home team would be a complete surprise.

Novosibirsk - Triumph 1 @ 2,20 Pinnacle

Basketball Russian Cup
Novosibirsk - Triumph 1 @2.20  (pinnacle)

http://www.oddsportal.com/basketball/russia/russian-cup-2013-2014/novosibirsk-triumph-ObwR1LK7/
true quality is on away side but not in this case.
For Triumph this competition is not important so coach decide to rest 4 key players from starting five. Rested will be Higgins(SG 19,6ppg),Rakovich(C 13,5ppg),Cheppellu(PG 8,2ppg) and Kulagin(SF 11,5ppg).
also coach said that he will give chance to young players who didnt play much this season, also he has invited 2 players from Triumph 2nd (B) team.
http://bctriumph.ru/news/look/37782/

Novosibirsk is good team, they have one excellent player that is center Podkolzin , he will be dominating under the basket with his 226cm !!!

match start in 10:00h tomorrow morning that is the reason why i post it now.




PREDICTIONS